Since 2016, the growth rate of the modern retail sector in Poland has been on on a clear downturn. Since January this year, the modern retail market has increased by 225,000 sqm to reach about 14.8 million sqm by the end of June, according to a report prepared by experts from BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland. The increase in the supply volume is largely driven by the development of markets in cities with less than 100,000 inhabitants.
The modern retail sector in Poland has already entered the maturity phase, and saturation rates of leasable space show that the possibility of absorption of new facilities by the market is limited. Additionally, the current challenges for the retail sector are very difficult, even despite the good economic situation in Poland and the growing affluence of Polish consumers. Therefore, it is not surprising that developers are very cautious and that only those projects which have a high chance to find their niche in the market will be carried out. In the following quarters, new space will be delivered mainly in small and medium sized centres and retail parks, most often located in cities with no more than 100,000 inhabitants. It is in these cities that well-prepared projects have a chance to meet the market demand
Patrycja Dzikowska, Dyrektor Działu Analiz Rynkowych i Doradztwa z BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland
Zahamowanie wzrostu nowej podaży
The market spoils neither landlords nor tenants
Large retail schemes, especially those with a convenient location, offering a wide range of shops, services, entertainment attractions and catering, managed to adapt quickly to the new, very demanding market realities and are not experiencing a decrease in footfall and turnover. According to analyses conducted by industry organizations such as the Polish Council of Shopping Centres (PRCH) and Retail Institute, they attract even more customers and generate higher turnover, despite the introduction of the restrictions on Sunday trading last year. The situation is worse in the case of small facilities with no extensive service and entertainment offering, which lose customers and have lower turnover. All this, combined with the intensive growth of the e-commerce sector and growing market competition, has a significant impact on the condition of tenants and, as a result, makes the heads of shopping centre managers and owners spin
Anna Pływacz, Zastępca Dyrektora w Dziale Powierzchni Handlowych, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland