High demand leads to a drop in vacancy rate
High demand leads to a drop in vacancy rate


High demand leads to a drop in vacancy rate


The capital attained 72 000 sqm of new office space spread over 8 buildings in the last quarter of 2017. The result recorded for the past three months made it possible to close last year with new supply at approx. 280 000 sqm and market size estimated at 5.37 million sqm – highlight authors of the AAG Office Warsaw Q4 2017 report at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.

Moderate supply

Following the high increase in new supply recorded in the capital in 2016 (approx. 410 000 sqm), in the period now reported on there was a visible drop when compared to the level recorded between 2012 and 2015.
The leading area in terms of office supply at the end of last year was the Centre zone, where the total volume exceeded 2 million sqm of space. For a few quarters now we have been able to see a dynamic pace of growth in the Centre – West zone. The area around Rondo Daszyńskiego, currently one of the largest building sites in this part of Europe, is seen as attractive thanks to the potential of the location, proximity to the heart of the city centre and excellent access to public transport, which includes the currently extended second metro line.

We are witnessing fundamental changes within Warsaw's central zone and can see that a new business district is developing in the capital. Within the next 2-3 years there will be new office schemes appearing in the vicinity of Rondo Daszyńskiego, which will include buildings set to permanently change Warsaw's panorama. However, it has to be pointed out that at the time of growth of its office market, the Wola district is also attracting numerous residential schemes accompanied by ground floor retail and service functions. At the moment the district has the highest number of new residential developments in the city. The formerly neglected and rundown part of the city has, unlike Służewiec dominated by the office development monoculture, a sporting chance of being transformed into a modern urban quarter that brings together diverse functions and stays lively and vibrant after the office buildings' working hours 

Małgorzata Fibakiewicz, Head of Office Agency, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland

The report drawn up by BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland shows that Mokotów, the second largest zone in the city in terms of volume of stock, held the highest share of last year's office supply. The situation is different in the East zone which covers the part of the city on the right bank of the river, where the force of attraction for new office developments is the lowest.

Stable demand

Last year net office take-up (new leases, pre-lets and expansions) reached a level of approx. 600 000 sqm, which was slightly lower than the result recorded in the record-breaking 2015. However, when compared y-o-y, the 2017 result was more than 30% higher than that recorded in 2016.
The authors of the report highlight that tenants now show considerable interest in schemes located in the Centre zone and those developed on its western outskirts. Furthermore, Mokotów is now also becoming an attractive location, as while offering a wide range of office space, it is additionally providing greater opportunities to negotiate more flexible commercial lease terms.
Last year's high level of demand translated directly into a drop in vacancy rate which fell from approx. 15% at the beginning of the year to approx. 12% at the end of Q4.

When looking at the capital's market from the perspective of the vacancy rate only, one could get the impression that there is a lot of room for manoeuvre in terms of finding a suitable office. In reality, however, finding a space of the required standard in excess of 5 000 sqm, which is what large organizations look for most frequently when thinking about expansion or relocation to Warsaw, is now becoming a considerable challenge 

Patrycja Dzikowska, Head of Research & Consultancy, Central and Eastern Europe, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland

The authors of the report point out that last year's demand structure was dominated by new leases.

No change in rents

At the end of last year monthly asking rents for prime space within the Centre zone oscillated between EUR 20.00 and EUR 22.00 per 1 sqm. It follows from the report that the improved occupancy rate translates directly into a favourable negotiating position for landlords. Analysts at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland estimate that in the short-term horizon the market in the capital will see the return of a market balance in the tenant – landlord relationship, as well as optimization of tenant incentive packages in the form of rent-free periods and fit-out contributions.

The Centre is set to grow further

Over the next three years the most dynamic growth within the office sector will be recorded in the capital's Centre zone which will see the delivery of more than 75% (i.e. approx. 600 000 sqm) of the 780 000 sqm of office space currently under construction. Importantly, developers have taken a particular liking to the areas around Rondo Daszyńskiego, where there are building sites at which more than 250 000 sqm of modern office space are now being developed, with further schemes being at various stages of preparation.

Kopiuj tekst



Pobierz wszystkie


pdf | 626 KB

Fibakiewicz Małgorzata

grafika | 4,64 MB

Powiązane artykuły
Considerable appetite for Polish properties


The domestic commercial property investment market closed last year with a record result in terms of transactions completed estimated at approx. 5.1 billion EUR, which represents YoY growth of 11%. The moving of completion of significant transactions to the beginning of this year did not have a negative impact on the result achieved. The last quarter proved to be particularly busy for investor, where transactions of the total value in excess of half of the volume reported in 2017 were finalized.
A record-breaking year for warehouse and logistics space ahead of us


The data provided in the annual AAG Industrial & Logistics Market Review report confirms that the sector with its stock of more than 13.5 million sqm was the fastest growing commercial property sector in 2017. The year saw the total volume of space increase by 21% as compared to 2016. The schemes developed as build-to-suit projects continue to be the driving force here. At the same time, authors of the analysis highlight the decrease in the share of speculative projects.
Strong Q3 on the retail market


In Q3 the modern retail market in Poland grew by nearly 140,000 sqm of GLA. This is a significant increase as compared to the first half of the year when only a mere 26,000 sqm of GLA within 5 schemes were completed. Notably, the first IKEA store was delivered in Lublin with the residents of Poland’s eastern regions in mind. Furthermore, the authors of the report draw our attention to the bustling end of the year which is set to bring more than 200,000 of GLA sqm in new retail projects.
A strong end of the year expected on the investment market


The total value of transactions on the domestic investment market at the end of 2017, taking into account the acquisitions completed in the first nine months and the estimated value of transactions in progress, may be about 15% higher from the record EUR 4.5 billion last year. The EUR 2.3 billion generated during the first three quarters of 2017 was lower than the value of the transactions completed in the corresponding period of the previous year, however the authors of the report believe this was caused e.g. by new regulations concerning the tax classification of agreements that prolong the decision-making process and the time needed to prepare and complete a transaction.

BNP Paribas Real Estate was appointed to manage four buildings for OTP real estate investment fund

As of January 2018, BNP Paribas Real Estate was selected to provide property management services for a real estate portfolio of 60,000 sq m commercial properties owned by OTP Real Estate Investment Fund.